US President Donald Trump is set to meet with several senators at the White House on Thursday to discuss progress on the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill. According to Politico, Senator Bernie Moreno said a group including Senator Cynthia Lummis will brief the president on "its path to success." The meeting comes as lawmakers race to pass the bill before the Senate's August recess — widely seen as the last realistic opportunity before midterm elections freeze legislative action. Lummis told Fox Business a new draft will be introduced in the next few days and expects it on the Senate floor next week.

Presidential involvement in bill drafting sessions suggests White House pressure to close the deal. The transmission to crypto is direct: the CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework separating commodities from securities in digital assets, removing regulatory uncertainty. Ethereum is the primary beneficiary — the bill is expected to clarify that ETH and tokens on proof-of-stake networks are commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, not securities under the SEC. That removes the staking-as-securities risk that has kept US institutions out of ETH yield products.

Long ETH on a 48-hour horizon. The headline risk is binary — either the bill clears the Senate floor before August recess or it does not advance until later. Traders on Kalshi now price a 79 percent chance of a Senate vote before recess, up from 68.8 percent the previous day. The draft release and floor scheduling are the two catalysts in the next week, and both tilt bullish for ETH specifically. BTC is already classified as a commodity by all regulators, so the bill adds nothing — this is an ETH-only setup.

Entry is on confirmation that the draft has been filed and a floor vote is scheduled. Do not front-run the meeting — wait for Lummis or Moreno to confirm the draft is live. The ideal entry is ETH funding still near baseline, which it is — 30-day average funding is at plus 0.1 basis points per eight hours across perps, indicating no speculative position ahead of the news. That means the move has not been bid yet.

Invalidation is if the Thursday meeting produces no draft commitment or if Senate leadership signals the bill will not get floor time before recess. Prediction markets currently price a 36 percent chance the bill becomes law this year and 62 percent by end of 2027 — the delta between vote odds and enactment odds reflects veto or House amendment risk, neither of which matters for the short-term trade. The vote itself is the catalyst, not the signing.

Watch for Lummis or the Senate Banking Committee to announce a bill number and a floor date. That is the entry signal. If the draft drops and no floor vote is scheduled within 72 hours, the setup is dead — the recess clock runs out and the trade collapses back to baseline. The specific timing matters because ETH has no other near-term catalyst, and the funding rate shows the market is not positioned for this yet.

Source: CoinTelegraph